DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/25 11:40
Wheat, Corn Higher at Midday
Corn and wheat lead at midday with soybeans setting back.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow 225 points higher. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 30 points lower.
Energies are lower with crude down $0.13. Livestock trade is mostly higher.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down 8.50.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with short covering developing
after overnight weakness. The weather forecast is expected to bring heavy rains
into the middle of the belt this week and colder than normal temperatures but
better progress was made last week. The weekly progress report had corn
planting at 17% complete versus the 18% five-year average. Emergence was at 4%
in line with the four-year average. The current forecast should add near term
support. Basis has remained steady to firmer to start the week. On the May
chart support is at the $3.54 three-month low with resistance at the $3.62 20-
and 200-day moving averages, which we are above at midday with the next level
of resistance at the 50-day at $3.67.
Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with spread trade vs. corn
unwinding and little fresh news. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 25 to 35
points lower. Planting progress was at 6% versus the 3% average. Wet weather
moving forward should be viewed as negative for beans since it could add
acreage coming forward, especially with the favorable spread trade vs. corn
recently. May soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $9.50; with
the multi-month low at $9.29 below that, with resistance the upper Bollinger
band at $9.69 then the 50-day at $9.92.
Wheat trade is 3 to 9 cents higher at midday with short covering picking up
with the cold weather forecasted and the weaker dollar helping to provide the
necessary encouragement. Wheat open interest hit a new record which should
induce more short covering if positive chart finishes can be mounted. Parts of
Kansas got fairly cold over the weekend but damage should be limited with heavy
rains for much of the belt this week but another cold snap coming. The Dakotas
look like better progress could be made this week with only light rains
expected. The winter wheat condition report remained at 54% good to excellent
but 1% moved to excellent from good. Winter wheat was listed at 32% heading
versus the 23% five-year average. Spring wheat planting was listed at 22%
complete versus the 34% five-year average. On the May Kansas City contract
support is at the new low at $3.98 3/4 with resistance at the $4.18 20-day
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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